Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

In the sixth century BCE (before the Common Era), the Greek lyric poet Archilochus wrote, “The fox knows many things but the hedgehog knows one big thing” (69). Archilochus remained silent on whether hedgehogs or foxes fared better, but in the 1953 essay “The Hedgehog and the Fox,” 20th-century philosopher Isaiah Berlin preferred foxes. While hedgehogs regard life through a singular big idea, foxes draw upon a multiplicity of experiences to deliver their life’s work. A typical hedgehog from history might be the ancient Greek philosopher Plato, with his world of ideals, while a fox would be the 16th-century British playwright William Shakespeare. While Tetlock claims to have no preference between hedgehogs and foxes, he enjoys the metaphor because “it captured something deep in my data” when he found that big-idea experts were more like hedgehogs, while more open-minded equivocal thinkers with an interest in many topics were foxes (69).

Tetlock’s view is that the media prefers to feature hedgehogs rather than foxes. The former, with their controversial views and consistent opinions, become like beloved, if stereotypical, sitcom characters. Even if they keep spouting a “truth” that is inconsistent with current reality, their constancy of opinion has a lulling effect on the