55 pages • 1 hour read
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan GardnerSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2015A modern alternative to SparkNotes and CliffsNotes, SuperSummary offers high-quality Study Guides with detailed chapter summaries and analysis of major themes, characters, and more.
Before You Read
Super Short Summary
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner explores the Good Judgment Project’s study on the accuracy of predictions made by non-experts called "superforecasters." The book characterizes these individuals by their openness, continuous self-improvement, moderate intelligence, and effectiveness in teamwork. It contrasts foxlike thinkers, who excel in forecasting due to their adaptability, with hedgehoglike thinkers and outlines methods for achieving better forecasting practices.
Reviews & Readership
Review Roundup
Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner is praised for its insightful analysis on the art of prediction, blending empirical research with engaging storytelling. Reviewers highlight its practical applications and robust methodology. Criticisms include dense content and repetitive sections, which may challenge some readers. Overall, it's a valuable read for those interested in decision-making and forecasting. Tetlock, Philip E., and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting. 2015.
Who Should Read Superforecasting?
A reader who enjoys Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman or The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver would be captivated by Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. This book targets those fascinated by decision-making, predictive analytics, and improving judgment through evidence-based practices.